Choose a Day

ARI MIL 2025-03-21 20:10 CST

Line Score

Click on a TeamID to bring up team status, a Line Score to access box score for that team

TmLine ScoreRTBHE
ARI400 450 2101629184
MIL240 200 100917140

Starters

TmWAA2YrNameIPTier
ARI0.004.69Corbin Burnes (R) 0.0X
MIL0.001.65Freddy Peralta (R) 0.0X

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

TmOpenCurrentLineWinRangeTC Sim
ARI0.3570.505-102980.488 - 0.512X
MIL0.6880.539-117850.535 - 0.556X

Team Status

TmWLBATPITCHURdPE
ARI181731.4-25.2-1.3-0.0
MIL181817.2-9.62.4-2.1

Vegas Status

Vegas column shows how the betting community predicted Win Percentage. Real is real Win Percentage for that team. For column % won or lost betting For that team each game. Against % betting against.

TmVegasRealForAgainst#Bets
ARI0.5170.5142.6%-21.5%12
MIL0.5120.500-7.6%-9.2%16

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
20:10

details
ARI0.505XXXXXX
MIL0.539XXXXXX

Away/Home Field Advantage

total WAA column shows variance in team W-L (WAA) above or below league average of WAA=0.
away/home WAA shows variance above or below league away W-L (WAA) average for away team, league home average for home team.

Tmtotal WAAaway/home WAA

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