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description expected values based on comparing Tier Combo simulation with Vegas game moneylines
keywords expected value, baseball
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Expected Values for 2026-05-16

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
12:10

details
TOR0.5070.5060.4760.45699.793.889.8
DET0.5350.4940.5240.54492.498.0101.7
13:15

details
KCA0.5170.5130.4840.46999.093.490.5
SLN0.5240.4870.5160.53193.098.6101.4
14:10

details
ARI0.5870.6040.5640.621102.795.9105.6
COL0.4570.3960.4360.37986.795.583.0
15:05

details
BAL0.5240.5130.4820.54698.092.1104.3
WAS0.5190.4870.5180.45494.0100.087.6
15:05

details
PHI0.6300.6440.6120.616102.497.397.9
PIT0.4130.3560.3880.38486.293.992.9
15:10

details
MIA0.4670.4300.4060.36192.086.977.3
TBA0.5780.5700.5940.63998.6102.8110.5
17:10

details
CIN0.4390.4690.4240.440106.996.7100.3
CLE0.6060.5310.5760.56087.695.092.4
18:10

details
MIL0.5670.5820.5530.595102.497.3104.7
MIN0.4780.4180.4470.40587.493.484.6
18:10

details
TEX0.598OOOOOO
HOU0.446OOOOOO
18:10

details
CHN0.5190.5480.5210.519105.8100.6100.2
CHA0.5240.4520.4790.48186.391.591.9
18:15

details
SDN0.4100.4380.3920.454106.995.6110.8
SEA0.6320.5620.6080.54688.896.186.3
18:15

details
NYA0.554NANANANANANA
NYN0.490NANANANANANA
18:15

details
BOS0.4950.4570.4280.41492.386.583.6
ATL0.5480.5430.5720.58699.4104.7107.2
20:38

details
LAN0.5760.6260.5840.641108.9101.6111.5
ANA0.4670.3740.4160.35980.089.076.8
20:40

details
SFN0.465NANANANANANA
OAK0.576NANANANANANA

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