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description expected values based on comparing Tier Combo simulation with Vegas game moneylines
keywords expected value, baseball
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Expected Values for 2026-05-07

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
11:35

details
TEX0.4270.4320.3980.389101.193.191.0
NYA0.6150.5680.6020.61192.698.199.6
12:05

details
MIN0.4900.5160.4820.550105.398.3112.2
WAS0.5540.4840.5180.45087.693.881.5
13:10

details
CLE0.469OOOOOO
KCA0.573OOOOOO
13:20

details
CIN0.3790.3780.3410.31799.890.083.7
CHN0.6660.6220.6590.68393.398.9102.5
14:10

details
NYN0.597NANANANANANA
COL0.446NANANANANANA
14:40

details
PIT0.5100.4990.4680.46897.891.791.7
ARI0.5330.5010.5320.53294.2100.0100.0
17:40

details
OAK0.4740.4970.4500.466104.995.098.3
PHI0.5690.5030.5500.53488.596.894.0
17:40

details
BAL0.4810.4880.4570.457101.595.195.1
MIA0.5610.5120.5430.54391.196.796.7
18:10

details
TBA0.505NANANANANANA
BOS0.537NANANANANANA
21:10

details
SLN0.4150.3770.3480.40890.983.998.3
SDN0.6280.6230.6520.59299.1103.794.1

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