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description expected values based on comparing Tier Combo simulation with Vegas game moneylines
keywords expected value, baseball
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Expected Values for 2026-04-28

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

TimeTmVegasNeutralHAPHAWAAExpected Values
17:10

details
TBA0.4830.5150.4860.487106.6100.6100.8
CLE0.5590.4850.5140.51386.892.091.8
17:35

details
HOU0.4650.5190.4880.476111.6104.9102.3
BAL0.5780.4810.5120.52483.288.690.7
17:40

details
SLN0.4370.4490.4210.462102.896.4105.8
PIT0.6080.5510.5790.53890.995.588.8
17:40

details
SFN0.427OOOOOO
PHI0.615OOOOOO
17:40

details
COL0.3790.3650.3350.33196.488.487.4
CIN0.6660.6350.6650.66995.299.8100.4
18:07

details
BOS0.507NANANANANANA
TOR0.535NANANANANANA
18:10

details
WAS0.3980.4180.3900.459104.997.9115.2
NYN0.6440.5820.6100.54190.294.583.9
18:15

details
DET0.4850.4980.4680.447102.696.492.1
ATL0.5580.5020.5320.55389.995.299.0
18:40

details
SEA0.5610.5460.5170.51097.292.090.8
MIN0.4810.4540.4830.49094.4100.5101.9
18:40

details
ARI0.469------
MIL0.571------
18:40

details
ANA0.5690.5840.5610.597102.898.7105.1
CHA0.4740.4160.4390.40387.892.685.0
19:05

details
NYA0.5500.6020.5720.633109.6104.1115.2
TEX0.4950.3980.4280.36780.486.574.1
20:40

details
CHN0.5450.5580.5180.513102.194.893.9
SDN0.4980.4420.4820.48788.896.997.9
20:40

details
KCA0.5310.5380.5070.487101.195.391.6
OAK0.5120.4620.4930.51390.196.1100.0
21:10

details
MIA0.3050.3380.2960.274110.997.189.9
LAN0.7380.6620.7040.72689.495.098.0

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