| Tm | WAA | 2Yr | Name | IP | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 6.17 | 0 | Freddy Peralta (R) | 158.7 | 3.64 |
| TEX | 4.00 | 0 | Merrill Kelly (R) | 171.0 | 1.34 |
Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet
| Tm | Open | Current | Line | Win | Range | TC Sim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0.569 | 0.554 | -124 | 81 | 0.554 - 0.558 | 0.530 |
| TEX | 0.481 | 0.488 | +105 | 105 | 0.485 - 0.490 | 0.470 |
Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.
Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.
| Lineups | Pitchers | TC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL0.64 | Merrill Kelly | |||
| - | 1.34 | = | -1 | |
| Relief TEX | ||||
| - | 3.98 | = | -3 | |
| TEX-0.63 | Freddy Peralta | |||
| - | 3.64 | = | -4 | |
| Relief MIL | ||||
| - | 0 | = | -1 |
| Tm | W | L | BAT | PITCH | UR | dPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 89 | 57 | 83.4 | 82.0 | 4.6 | -3.7 | NLDS |
| TEX | 76 | 70 | -19.4 | 92.1 | 15.3 | -12.5 |
Vegas column shows how the betting community predicted Win Percentage. Real is real Win Percentage for that team. For column % won or lost betting For that team each game. Against % betting against.
| Tm | Vegas | Real | For | Against | #Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0.509 | 0.610 | 12.1% | -22.4% | 143 |
| TEX | 0.503 | 0.521 | -3.5% | -9.6% | 143 |
Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.
NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.
| Time | Tm | Vegas | Neutral | HAP | HAWAA | Expected Values | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:35 details | MIL | 0.554 | 0.563 | 0.530 | 0.579 | 101.9 | 95.9 | 104.8 |
| TEX | 0.488 | 0.437 | 0.470 | 0.421 | 89.6 | 96.3 | 86.3 | |
| Tm | W-L | Total | Hitters | Starters | Relief | dPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 32 | 30.7 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 3.8 | -3.7 |
| TEX | 6 | 16.6 | -5.6 | 9.4 | 12.7 | -12.5 |
total WAA column shows variance in team W-L (WAA) above or below league average of WAA=0.
away/home WAA shows variance above or below league away W-L (WAA) average for away team, league home average for home team.
| Tm | total WAA | away/home WAA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | MIL | 2.65 | 2.83 |
| HOME | TEX | 0.09 | 0.67 |
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