Baseball Handbook beta

NYA CLE 2025-04-22 17:10 CST

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
NYA	-0.42	-1.06	Will Warren (R)	15.7	-1.01
CLE	-0.84	3.44	Tanner Bibee (R)	20.0	0.94

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
NYA	0.512	0.528	-112	89	0.524 - 0.535	X
CLE	0.535	0.510	-104	96	0.510 - 0.515	X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
NYA1.12*		Tanner Bibee
	-	0.94	=	0
		Relief CLE
	-	3.27	=	-2
CLE-0.59*		Will Warren
	-	-1.01	=	0
		Relief NYA
	-	0.01	=	-1

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
NYA	14	9	31.8	5.9	-9.7	-0.9
CLE	13	9	-1.9	1.6	-1.7	4.4

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	Vegas	Real	For	Against	#Bets
NYA	0.568	0.609	2.1%	-19.9%	23
CLE	0.463	0.591	13.1%	-25.9%	22

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
17:10 details	NYA	0.528	X	X	X	X	X	X
	CLE	0.510	X	X	X	X	X	X

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	total WAA	away/home WAA