Baseball Handbook beta

CIN MIA 2025-04-22 17:40 CST

Starters

Tm	WAA	2Yr	Name	IP	Tier
CIN	-0.98	2.83	Nick Martinez (R)	21.0	0.36
MIA	-0.59	-0.90	Edward Cabrera (R)	9.7	-1.01

Vegas Lines

Win column is profit winning a 100 unit bet

Tm	Open	Current	Line	Win	Range	TC Sim
CIN	0.556	0.543	-119	84	0.541 - 0.550	X
MIA	0.488	0.498	+101	101	0.490 - 0.505	X

Tier Combo Table

Tier variances range from +4 to -4 in Lineups/Pitcher columns below. These caps have been removed from display. The square root of a variance is standard deviation. Tier Combo integers are derived by subtacting Starter and Relief tiers from opposing team's lineup tier value shown in the table below.

Away/Home colors in tier column entries show which team is favored in that matchup and by how much. Tier Combo integers range from -6 to +6.

Lineups		Pitchers		TC
CIN0.18*		Edward Cabrera
	-	-1.01	=	1
		Relief MIA
	-	-0.74	=	1
MIA-0.46*		Nick Martinez
	-	0.36	=	-1
		Relief CIN
	-	0.56	=	-1

Team Status

Tm	W	L	BAT	PITCH	UR	dPE
CIN	11	12	21.8	6.9	0.3	-7.1
MIA	10	12	1.8	-20.1	-0.7	2.0

Vegas Status

Win/Loss columns based on median Vegas moneylines for that team

Tm	Vegas	Real	For	Against	#Bets
CIN	0.484	0.478	-2.7%	-2.2%	23
MIA	0.409	0.455	8.5%	-15.4%	22

Expected Values

Expected Values on a 100 unit bet using currrent Vegas break even probability and TC simulation results. EVs less than 108 are don't bet games with numbers displayed. EVs greater than 108 are displayed with an O indicating lineups in and simulation complete but these games must go through another layer of scrutiny. Use your own judgement.

NA means one or more starters does not have enough IP this season to simulate. HA means the HAWAA simulation aborts this betting opportunity. All Dashes indicate a border line game. X means simulation not run yet for this game probably due to lineups not in.

Time	Tm	Vegas	Neutral	HAP	HAWAA	Expected Values
17:40 details	CIN	0.543	X	X	X	X	X	X
	MIA	0.498	X	X	X	X	X	X

Away/Home Field Advantage

	Tm	total WAA	away/home WAA